Analysts have shared their expectations for the opening of James Cameron's «Avatar» threequel.
The third film in the «Avatar» series has received its first box office projections three weeks before its release. According to industry analysts, «Avatar: The Seed Bearer» could gross around $110 million in the US and Canada during its opening weekend, with an estimated range of $100 million to $130 million.
Experts note that such figures are possible due to the film's broad audience appeal. While interest is higher among male audiences, attention from women also remains high.
Nevertheless, the projections are more modest than the results of «Avatar: The Way of Water», which opened in the US and Canada with $134 million against a forecast of $150–175 million, but then repeatedly increased its earnings and eventually grossed $2.34 billion worldwide.
Analysts remind that the specifics of the Cameron franchise differ from the models of studios like Marvel. «Avatar» films do not require an immediate trip to the cinema on the day of the premiere to avoid spoilers. Viewers prefer to choose a convenient time and the best seats in 3D, IMAX, and premium theaters, which smooths out the start but ensures long-term box office success.
James Cameron himself, however, expresses cautious optimism. According to him, the industry has changed significantly since «The Way of Water»: the COVID-19 pandemic and the rapid growth of streaming services have formed new habits, and cinema attendance in 2025 remains below pre-COVID levels.
The director previously emphasized that he is not ready to officially launch production of the fourth part (despite the fact that some material has already been filmed) until he sees the results of the threequel.
Due to high production budgets, the future of the franchise directly depends on financial success. Cameron does not rule out that if the third part does not meet expectations, he will shut down the project and end the story in book format.
The world premiere of «Avatar: The Seed Bearer» will take place on December 19, 2025, and the film will be released in Russia on December 25.
