If Sony and Microsoft release next-generation consoles priced around $1000, it could significantly slow down player adoption of the new generation. This conclusion was reached by Ampere Analysis, who studied possible market development scenarios.
According to the company's forecast, if PlayStation 6 and Xbox Project Helix are released in 2028 and cost $1000 at launch, their combined sales over the first five years could be 38% lower than the sales of PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S over the same period.
The high cost will affect not only the number of units sold but also the total consumer spending. Ampere Analysis predicts that by 2031, the market for games and services for PlayStation and Xbox, with consoles priced at $1000, will be approximately $3.4 billion, or 12%, smaller than in a scenario where devices launch at $700.
Ampere Analysis identified three possible strategies that Sony and Microsoft could use to avoid such a high launch price.
The first option is to postpone the launch of the new generation beyond 2028 and extend the life cycle of the current PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. This would allow companies to wait for a potential reduction in component costs.
The second is to maintain the 2028 target but compensate for high production costs through larger hardware subsidies, new monetization models, active promotion of digital content, and optimization of sales channels.
The third option involves more radical changes — abandoning the traditional course of primarily graphical improvements in favor of a new form factor and fundamentally different ways of using the device. Analysts compare this strategy to Nintendo's approach during the Wii era, when the company focused not on maximum performance but on an unusual user experience.
In the case of Project Helix, Microsoft has already shown signs that it might be moving in both the second and third directions. The next Xbox is expected to differ significantly from current consoles and may represent a kind of hybrid of a PC and a console, and Microsoft itself is considering alternative payment options.