The system of adding games to the "wishlist" on the largest PC platform is often perceived as an indicator of popularity. When hundreds of thousands of users click "add to wishlist," it looks like a signal that the project will be a commercial success.
This was believed due to examples like Baldur’s Gate 3, Cyberpunk 2077, and Hollow Knight: Silksong, which remained at the top of the "wishlist" for years and sold millions of copies. But a report from Video Game Insights showed that there is almost no connection between the number of people who added to the "wishlist" and sales.
- Only 6% of games on Steam gain 100,000 "wishlist" additions before release — and only they actually show good sales;
- Most games are added to the wishlist by less than 10,000 users;
- Only 9% of projects sell better than their "wishlist" in the first month after release.
Pragma CEO Eden Chen believes that "wishlist" should not be the main criterion for success, especially for independent studios. According to him, one click of "add to list" often means only short-term interest, and not a real intention to buy the game.
Developers should focus on community engagement — activity on Reddit, Discord, and feedback after tests. A constant audience, even a small one, is much more reliable than thousands of random clicks.