The Avatar threequel received disappointing forecasts from analysts before its release. Some of them came true in the worst way.
James Cameron's third film started in global distribution below expectations. In its first weekend, "Avatar: Ashes and Fire" grossed $345 million, losing out to "The Way of Water", but retained its status as one of the biggest releases of 2025 - second only to "Zootopia 2".
In the US and Canada, the threequel earned $88 million. This turned out to be even lower than forecasts, which predicted the film would gross between $100 and $130 million. For comparison, "Avatar: The Way of Water" opened with $134 million in 2022.
Despite the modest start, experts are in no hurry to write off the project. Analysts previously noted that the Avatar franchise traditionally demonstrates a smooth collection dynamic. Viewers prefer to choose convenient premium formats, rather than rush to the cinema in the first days - especially on the eve of the New Year holidays.
This model allowed the second part to repeatedly increase its box office and complete its run with $2.34 billion, and the first film, which started with $77 million, became the highest-grossing film of all time with a result of $2.97 billion.
However, the lower start of the third part may affect James Cameron's future plans. The director previously said that the launch of "Avatar 4" directly depends on the financial results of "Ashes and Fire", given the high production costs and market changes after the pandemic.
