Analysts expect a strong, but not record-breaking, start at the box office for the new Star Wars movie.
The movie «The Mandalorian & Grogu» could gross around $71 million domestically in its opening weekend. This forecast was published by the analytical service BoxOfficeTheory more than a month before the premiere.
By 2026 standards, this is a solid result. For example, «Project Doomsday» opened with $80 million, and «Scream 7» with $63 million. However, within the Star Wars franchise, these figures look more modest. For comparison, «The Rise of Skywalker» opened with $177 million, and «Rogue One» with $155 million.
The forecast was influenced by a number of conflicting factors. The «Mandalorian» series already has an established audience that may come to theaters for the sequel. However, three years have passed since the release of the third season, and the peak of the project's popularity was in the second season of 2020. This may cut off some viewers who will perceive the film as an optional spin-off requiring "homework" before viewing.
Additional pressure is created by the release schedule. The film is released at the end of May, but already in early June it will have to compete with major premieres, including the reboot of «Masters of the Universe», Steven Spielberg's «Day of Revelation», and «Toy Story 5», aimed at a similar audience.
At the same time, according to a Fandango service poll, the film did not even make it into the top ten most anticipated summer releases, while the new «Toy Story» takes first place.
«The Mandalorian & Grogu» will be released internationally on May 22, 2026, and will be the first full-length Star Wars release since 2019. The future of the franchise in theaters largely depends on its results.
