One day remains until the international premiere of "The Mandalorian & Grogu," and the film's box office predictions continue to rise. According to BoxOfficeTheory, Lucasfilm's new feature film could now gross $81-96 million over a traditional weekend in the US. Including the holiday Monday, the four-day opening is estimated at $105 million, and global box office for the debut weekend is approximately $160 million.
Earlier this month, analysts expected an opening around $71 million domestically. The current increase in predictions is attributed to "a small but steady" rise in interest after test screenings and review publications.
The reviews themselves, however, are mixed. The film currently holds a 61% "fresh" rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a score of 54 on Metacritic. This is even lower than "Solo: A Star Wars Story," which ultimately became the biggest box office flop of the modern "Star Wars" era. In 2018, that film earned $84 million over a similar long weekend before Memorial Day.
The difference is that "The Mandalorian & Grogu" has an important advantage – its budget. The film cost Disney approximately $165 million, while "Solo" and "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" each cost around $275 million. Therefore, it will be easier for the new Lucasfilm picture to break even.