Sandbox games have emerged as the most commercially stable genre on Steam. This conclusion was reached by the authors of the Steam Revenue Report, published by the We Love It platform.
The authors note that the figures presented in the report are estimates, not actual sales data. Calculations used a method that links the number of reviews, the game's price, and a special multiplier. Researchers provide three scenarios: conservative with a 20x multiplier, standard 35x, and optimistic 50x. The report primarily uses the standard 35x estimate.
The study excluded free-to-play games, projects without reviews, add-ons, adult games, and products that are no longer available for purchase or lack an up-to-date price. Changes in game prices over time were not considered.
In total, the approximately 100,000 analyzed projects are estimated by researchers to have collectively earned about $129.8 billion. Genres were determined by the six most popular tags for each game, so one project could be counted in multiple categories simultaneously.
Researchers compared median revenue, the revenue of the top 10% most successful projects, and the so-called hit rate – the proportion of games that earned at least $100,000 over their lifetime.
Sandbox games, in particular, demonstrated strong results across all metrics. The genre has both high median revenue and a high indicator among the most successful games. Moreover, 27.4% of sandbox games reached the $100,000 revenue mark, making the genre one of the most commercially stable.
Following sandbox games in median revenue were visual novels, simulators, role-playing games, horrors, and quests.
However, if we look exclusively at the biggest hits, the picture changes. In terms of revenue for the top 10% of projects, shooters are almost on par with sandbox games, followed by role-playing and racing games.
Platformers, on the other hand, were among the outsiders. Despite the presence of major successful projects like Sonic and Celeste, games in this genre generally show relatively low revenues.
The study also shows how the commercial attractiveness of genres has changed over time. To do this, the authors compared the median revenue of each genre with the median of the entire market: a value above one means better than average results, and below one means worse.
One of the most notable trends was the narrowing gap between genres. Since approximately 2020, there have been fewer categories capable of earning more than five times the overall median, while the number of genres with below-average indicators has increased.
The results for sandbox games in the 2010s were particularly impressive. In 2017, their median revenue reached approximately 15 times the overall market median.
Roguelikes reached their peak around the same period. They remain successful, but in recent years, their advantage over the market is no longer as significant.
Horror, visual novels, and role-playing games generally maintained slightly above-market average performance. Shooters, despite a large number of extremely successful individual projects, experienced a relative decline in the first half of the 2020s.
Platformers, conversely, saw a particularly noticeable deterioration in their performance after 2020, falling significantly below the market median level.
However, the authors of the report emphasize that the results obtained should not be taken as precise sales statistics. All indicators are calculated, and the number of games released in different genres varies greatly. Therefore, revenue in some categories may be distributed among a much larger number of projects.