Samsung is maintaining a restrained position in the memory market, despite the sharp increase in global demand. According to DigiTimes, DRAM wafer production will increase by only 5% in 2026 — to approximately eight million units. Against the backdrop of forecasts promising a 30% increase in orders, including from giants such as AMD and NVIDIA, this looks like a drop in the ocean.
The main reason for this caution is the fear of repeating the overproduction crisis of 2022–2023, when the surplus of memory collapsed prices and seriously hit the industry's profits. Samsung, as well as Micron and SK hynix, prefer to act conservatively, reallocating capacity in favor of the most profitable areas — primarily the corporate AI sector.
The increase in production almost entirely goes to the HBM segment: we are talking about HBM3, HBM3E chips and the future generation of HBM4. The consumer market — DRAM for PCs, laptops and smartphones — will receive practically no additional volumes, so prices for DRAM and SSD are likely to continue to rise.
Micron and SK hynix adhere to a similar strategy. Both companies are reducing the share of consumer DRAM, betting on HBM and server solutions. As a result, a model is being established in the market in which highly profitable areas are prioritized, and the mass segment remains under pressure.
Analysts warn that the memory shortage may persist at least until the end of the year, and if the growth rate of the AI sector continues, until 2027. For consumers, this means a further increase in the cost of components, and for electronics manufacturers, problems with supplies.