Analysts predict "Supergirl" will have a start similar to the failed "Captain Marvel 2"

According to Box Office Theory analysts, the upcoming DC film "Supergirl" is aiming for a modest $47-65 million in its opening weekend in North America.

If the film hits the lower end of that range, the result will be comparable to "Captain Marvel 2," which debuted in 2023 with $47 million and ended its worldwide run with $206 million — a catastrophic figure for a film with a budget of approximately $307 million, considering a $67 million tax credit.

If "Supergirl" reaches the upper end, its opening will be closer to the first solo films about Thor and Captain America, but the question of profitability will still remain open.

One of the factors cited for the low forecasts is an unfavorable release window. The film is set to be released on June 26, 2026 — just one week after "Toy Story 5," five days before the animated crossover "Minions and Monsters," and two weeks before the live-action "Moana."

These films often rank higher in the most anticipated summer releases and target a broader audience. Moreover, female superhero films traditionally gross less than male superhero projects, although some viewers will surely come to see Lobo played by Jason Momoa.

However, it's too early for Warner Bros. to panic. According to Puck News, the budget for "Supergirl" is more modest than "Superman," at around $170 million. This means that to break even and be considered a success, the film would need to gross around $425 million worldwide. Furthermore, forecasts could still be revised after ticket sales begin next week.